Bankruptcy: is Univision next?

Univision’s reduced revenue and cash flow, the heavy debt load, the upcoming lawsuit with Televisa over programming and the credit crunch the industry is experiencing has analysts predicting the Spanish-language network could be next on the list of media companies to file for bankruptcy.

According to the Hollywood Reporter, Univision had a 25% drop in auto advertising in the third quarter of 2008. It also also has a lot of debt after its buyout last year by private-equity firms, which included media mogul Haim Saban.

Credit analysts have started to compare Univision and Tribune, which also was taken private at the height of the private-equity buyout boom, despite Univision’s stronger growth rate. The company’s liquidity has become a concern given the firm’s debt load – a $500 million debt payment comes due in March. And the sale of its music arm didn’t generate as much cash as Univision management hoped. The company got $153 million – half of what had been expected.

Analysts at Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have dire predictions for Univision in 2009. Moody’s issued warnings, including in a pre-holiday-season debt-ratings downgrade on the company, its second of 2008.